California’s ambitious climate agenda is facing a reckoning, and it’s coming from an unexpected place: every major candidate running to be governor—Democrats and Republicans alike—is signaling that the state’s 2045 carbon neutrality goal needs serious recalibration.
The pressure is real. Californians are paying $1.50 to $1.60 more per gallon of gas than the rest of the country, utilities are passing climate-related costs to consumers, and 90% of registered vehicles still run on gasoline. Add in the fact that California has lost seven refineries in the past decade alone—including two in the last six months—and you’ve got a political powder keg. When even Democratic billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer admits that“we need to have more refining capacity for internal combustion engines,”you know the conversation has shifted.
During interviews on California Politics 360, the eight leading candidates outlined their positions, and the range tells you something important about where the debate has landed. Republicans like Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton want to scrap the regulations altogether, with Hilton vowing to halt climate goals entirely if elected. But the Democrats are arguably more interesting—they’re not rejecting the climate imperative; they’re wrestling with it. Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, called the 2045 timeline“looking harder and harder to get there.”Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, won’t give up on the vision but said intermediate benchmarks need adjusting. Matt Mahan, San Jose’s mayor, wants to phase out oil and gas“naturally”through innovation rather than mandate.
The most telling gap? California set a goal of 1.2 million electric vehicle chargers by 2030. As of now, there are 216,445. The state aimed for 5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030; current data shows 2.23 million. But the stinger is the 2035 gas-car ban—most top Democratic candidates essentially said that’s off the table. Thurmond noted the state doesn’t even have the charging infrastructure. Becerra pointed out that swapping a pickup truck for an EV isn’t realistic for most families. Porter herself looked at buying an electric minivan and couldn’t justify the $8,000 to $10,000 premium.
This isn’t about California abandoning climate responsibility. It’s about the collision between environmental policy and the cost-of-living crisis that’s been hammering working families. The regulations that drive down emissions also drive up prices—on gas, electricity, utilities, and vehicles. When affordability becomes the dominant concern for voters, even the most climate-focused candidates have to acknowledge that pie-in-the-sky timelines don’t work.
What’s emerging is a quieter consensus: California’s climate goals were always going to require adjustment, but the trigger has moved up. The question now isn’t whether to scale back—it’s how to do it without losing sight of the long-term vision. That conversation is just getting started, and whoever wins the governor’s race will have to navigate it.
About the Author
Andrew Johnson
Andrew Johnson is a contributor to LocalBeat, covering local news and community stories.
