California Primary: Why Your Ballot Matters More Than You Think

If you haven’t opened that ballot sitting on your kitchen counter, here’s why you should care: California’s June 2 primary could get weird in ways that shake up everything from Sacramento to your local school board.

As of Wednesday, only 1.28 million ballots have been returned—that’s a measly 5.6% of the more than 21 million sent out. But the early numbers already tell an interesting story. Republicans are voting at a higher rate (8.3%) compared to Democrats (5.1%), and older voters are crushing it while younger voters are sleeping on the whole thing. That age gap is real: voters 65 and older are returning ballots at an 11.8% rate, while those 18-34 are limping in at 2%.

Here’s what makes this primary genuinely unusual. With California’s top-two system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election—regardless of party. That means it’s actually possible that two Republicans could make the runoff, completely locking Democrats out of the general election race for governor. According to Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc., 80% of Democrats are worried about exactly that scenario. Republicans, meanwhile, are equally nervous that two Democrats will edge them out. That awareness is changing how people think about their ballots.

The demographic patterns we’re seeing now probably won’t hold by Election Day. Historically, older voters jump on early voting while Latino voters—especially older ones—often prefer voting in person. Younger voters, predictably, are procrastinators. But there’s something else at play: Democrats might be intentionally holding onto their ballots to make sure they vote for someone who can actually make it into the runoff and compete. It’s strategic thinking in real time.

One important heads-up if you’re in a rural area: the U.S. Post Office is warning that postmarks might not arrive on time if you’re more than 50 miles from an urban center. So if you’re outside Sacramento’s immediate vicinity and you want to mail your ballot, send it in at least a week before June 2. If you wait until Election Day and rely on that postmark, you’re taking a risk.

The last day to register to vote is Monday, May 26. Vote centers open Saturday, May 23 for counties participating in the Voter’s Choice Act. Election Day is June 2. And if you’re the type who’s never paid attention to a primary before? This year’s actually worth your time.