Becerra and Hilton Leading the Pack as California Primary Arrives

One week out from California’s June 2 primary, the race for governor is shaping up exactly as expected — and yet not quite. Xavier Becerra holds a narrow lead at 23%, with Republican Steve Hilton nipping at his heels at 20%, according to fresh data from the Public Policy Institute of California. But here’s what’s worth paying attention to: both candidates have nearly doubled their support since December, suggesting momentum matters when voters finally start paying close attention.

The Democratic field remains fractured. Becerra commands 39% support among Democratic voters, but that leaves plenty of room for Tom Steyer (15%) and Katie Porter (12%) to pull votes away. On the Republican side, Steve Hilton dominates with 53% backing from GOP voters, leaving Chad Bianco at a distant 13%. This is a race that could very much come down to turnout and who shows up on June 2 — or in the mail, given California’s voting patterns.

What’s genuinely interesting is how Independents are behaving. They’re scattered across the field with Porter leading at 20%, followed by Hilton at 17%, Becerra at 15%, and a tie between Bianco and Tom Steyer at 14% each. In a top-two primary, those Independent voters could be the difference between a runoff featuring two Democrats or two Republicans, or the more traditional scenario of one from each party facing off later.

The PPIC survey also digs into something Sacramento voters care deeply about right now: the state budget crisis. Nearly half of likely voters (45%) say the budget is a huge problem, and voters overwhelmingly agree on priorities — health and human services and public education should get the biggest piece of the pie. But here’s the tension: most Californians want lower taxes and more services, a mathematical reality that’s been haunting state leaders for years. With the legislature facing a June 15 deadline to pass a balanced 2026-27 budget, that disconnect between what voters want and what’s fiscally possible is about to get very real.

One bright spot in the poll: seven in 10 voters are actually paying attention to the governor’s race, and about six in 10 are satisfied with the candidate field. That’s not exactly enthusiasm, but it’s engagement — and in an election year, that counts.